US GDP growth will reach 2.75% in the second half of 2013

by:Gewinn     2022-06-06
Recently, Moody's Analytics (Moody's Analytics) released the company's chief economist Mark Zandi's August US economic outlook forecast. The report, 'U.S. Macroeconomic Outlook: Approaching a Growth Tipping Point,' argues that the recent disconnect between the pace of U.S. GDP growth and the pace of job creation is abnormal and unlikely to continue. Moody's Analytics forecasts that U.S. GDP growth will expand to 2.75% in the second half of this year and close to 3% in 2014. The report pointed out that the recovery of the real estate market will greatly promote the growth of employment. While U.S. homebuilding and home prices are up strongly from their troughs two years ago, the housing market recovery is just beginning. U.S. housing starts are still below 1 million a year, while underlying demand for new homes is already approaching 1.7 million a year. Each new home will be able to support up to 4 jobs in construction, manufacturing, transport, financial services, retail and a range of other service industries. Each single-family home construction can support more than 1 job. Zandi said: 'U.S. housing construction growth is expected to bring about 3 million jobs to the United States over the next three years, which is critical to the recovery of the U.S. job market.' The report also pointed out that the recovery of the housing market relies heavily on the first Homebuyers' access to home loans, and the ability to mobilize spare resources to build homes, most importantly, are the Fed's plans to change its monetary policy stance. According to the report, U.S. GDP grew by just 1.4% in the past year, showing a disconnect between weak domestic growth and strong employment data. Historical data shows that the current U.S. job growth approaching 200,000 per month should correspond to a higher 3% GDP growth rate. The disconnect between GDP growth and employment growth will likely eventually be bridged through revisions, with the final GDP growth rate set to be stronger than current figures, the report said.
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