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vaughn palmer: broadway subway\'s half-a-billion dollar a kilometre estimate fraught with risk

by:Gewinn     2019-09-06
VICTORIA —
The Ministry of Transport provides a classification interpretation of half of the cost estimatesa-billion-
On Broadway in Vancouver, it costs $1 per kilometer.
5 Budget. 7-kilometre-
It is estimated that the long Broadway subway fare is $2.
83 billion earlier this month, Prime Minister John Hogan greenette provided provincial funding for the project.
Let\'s say this number is true-
Think of me as a skeptic.
The cost per kilometer of the subway is almost four times that of the Evergreen Line built two years ago.
But this is not a fair comparison, the ministry said.
\"In order to compare the cost of the Evergreen Line and the Broadway Metro, both projects should be considered at the same time,\" the statement was emailed to me.
\"If Evergreen construction is to start work in 2020, then the cost of seven years will increase.
Given the current market conditions and the cost pressures of goods and labor, it will face the same consideration if Evergreen is built today.
\"According to the current annual rate, the inflation rate for 7 years is 2.
5% will drive Evergreen to $0. 13 billion from the cost of $0. 16 billion per kilometer announced in 2016.
So inflation is only part of the story and even allows higher growth rates for wages and materials.
The department said the huge differences between the two air train projects illustrate the remaining gaps.
Six stations on the Broadway subway will be built underground.
\"The subway station is seven or eight times more expensive than the one above --
Ground station built for evergreen trees.
\"As the name suggests, the subway itself will be mostly underground.
\"The evergreen tunnel is 23 cents, and the Broadway Tunnel will be 85 cents.
The cost of the tunnel is two to three times that of evergreen trees.
\"This is an elevated rail,\" the ministry said.
\"It is impossible to build an evergreen tree --
Due to the limitations of existing adjacent properties, rail clearance at intersections, traffic requirements and demand for high-rise, Broadway-style elevated railslevel stations.
\"The third factor is urban construction and suburban construction.
\"Evergreen trees are in relatively low-density suburbs compared to the very dense urban/commercial environment on Broadway,\" the ministry said . \".
\"Utility relocation is limited on evergreen trees.
On Broadway, we estimate that these costs are eight to ten times that of evergreen trees.
Similarly, the cost of transportation management and the relocation of buses will increase significantly.
Then land acquisition.
\"Along the Broadway corridor, real estate costs are very high.
In the past few years, high-density business value has risen significantly.
\"The public will have to wait to find out how each of the above factors leads to an overall budget estimate.
According to the \"edited\" and \"disinfected\" versions of the Broadway Metro business plan published on the ministry\'s website, the government withheld all cost breakdown.
\"In order to ensure a competitive procurement process and protect our negotiating position, certain parts of the business case and other project documents must be withheld at this time,\" according to the ministry . \".
\"At the end of the purchase, a report will be issued that includes information on the value of the contract and other costs.
\"The procurement process will be completed within the next 18 months and the final contract will be awarded in the winter of 2019.
Even so, the department will not publish a breakdown of each item in the budget.
The full details of the final cost will not be announced until \"construction is over.
\"In the current plan for 2025, it is assumed that there are no accidents and unexpected delays in the construction schedule.
Taking into account the inherent risks associated with the construction of the tunnel on the ground, the latter is a real possibility.
As B. said, \"tunnel drilling is a high-risk business . \"C.
Supreme Court judge Christopher graouer noted this in a lengthy legal action arising from the construction of the Canadian line.
\"In terms of geology, it is not possible to determine what underground conditions it will encounter before the tunnel rig gets there.
Under challenging conditions, the tunnel drill may get stuck and fail.
If they do, and this is not unusual, then this part of the project will stop until the problem is resolved.
Repairs can be expensive.
\"Ask the good people in Seattle,\" he added, referring to the expensive breakdown of the machine that dug the road tunnel under Seattle in 2013, which led to lawsuits and multipleyear delay.
This can be defended by the judge\'s decision --
For budget and scheduling reasons-
Line Builders in Canada refused to tunnel construction and chose to cut and cover through the village of Cambie Street.
Nevertheless, the punitive disruption caused by corporate cuts and coverage for the Camby community has caused \"no more\" calls for any part of the Broadway expansion project. (
It has also produced recent court rulings in favor of these businesses, but this is another topic of the day).
In short, while the tunnel is less disruptive on the surface, its own budget and construction schedule may be interrupted.
There are 6 evergreen lines
Construction was delayed by one month due to unexpected problems during the tunnel construction phase.
Seven years before the construction is completed, don\'t be surprised if the big excavation under Broadway eventually costs even more than the current estimate of half a billion dollars per kilometer.
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